2024 election predictions from Allan Lichtman, Nate Silver, betting odds
Election Day 2024 is just under three weeks away, when Americans will decide between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
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Of the five national polls released on Wednesday, Oct. 16, Harris is ahead in all but the Marquette Law School poll, which has Harris and Trump tied. But who are political experts predicting will win? And what do bettors say?
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman predicted Harris would win the election, but pollster Nate Silver believes Trump will win. Betting odds are starting to swing heavily in one candidate's favor.
Both Lictman and Silver use two different methodologies to predict their picks for the White House:
Allan Lichtman: How did he predict Harris will win?
Lichtman, a historian and "distinguished professor" of History at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, USA Today noted.
Lichtman developed a prediction system known as his "13 Keys to the White House" to determine the results of the elections. The "Keys" are comprised of 13 categories:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate)
- KEY 2 (Contest)
- KEY 3 (Incumbency)
- KEY 4 (Third Party)
- KEY 5 (Short-Term Economy)
- KEY 6 (Long-Term Economy)
- KEY 7 (Policy Change)
- KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
- KEY 9 (Scandal)
- KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
- KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
- KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma)
- KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)
Nate Silver: How did he predict Trump will win?
Silver is an American statistician and founder of election analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
Silver’s 2024 election forecast model is similar to his FiveThirtyEight election version with the methodology mostly the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced in his election model in 2020, according to his Silver Bulletin, a site offering the latest polling data.
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Who is winning the 2024 election right now?
Polls show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.
His 2024 election model examines polling averages but adjusts for polls conducted among registered or likely voters. When predicting a winner, the model also uses national polls to make determinations about state polls.
The model also uses data on voters’ religious affiliation, along with other demographic, geographic and political changes, when calculating the similarity in the vote between different states.
Betting odds
Offshore bettors continue to drive up the probability that Trump will win the presidential race.
This Thursday, his probability on crypto-trading Polymarket rose to 62%. PredictIt shows Trump's odds at 54 to 47.
According to USA Today, Polymarket warned that the betting market margins shouldn't be compared with polling margins."
"While Trump’s lead is the largest it has been since the summer, it’s important not to overstate its significance. A 55-45 prediction market edge is not nearly as strong as a five-point polling lead," Polymarket's newsletter Oracle wrote. "Small moves in the polls are magnified into large swings in the odds."
Latest polls in swing states
Meanwhile, Harris has maintained an edge nationally, but polls show Trump ahead in six of the seven swing states that will decide the election. All the polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.
An average of more than 14 recent national polls calculated by 270toWin shows Harris with a narrow lead over Trump (49.6% to 47.1%).
The latest swing state polls, which will determine the outcome of the election, tell a different story: As of Wednesday, Oct. 16, Trump was ahead in all but one swing state, according to an average of the latest polls.
Click here to learn more about these polls and their methodology.
Arizona
An average of eight-plus polls in Arizona, the most recent on Oct. 14, shows Trump with a 1.8% lead.
Georgia
An average of six-plus polls in Georgia, the most recent on Oct. 14, shows Trump with a .5% lead.
Michigan
In Michigan, an average of eight-plus polls, the most recent on Oct. 15, shows Trump with a .5% lead.
Nevada
An average of five-plus polls in Nevada, the most recent on Oct. 15, shows Trump with a .6% lead.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, an average of five-plus polls, the most recent on Oct. 15, shows Trump with a 1.2% lead.
Pennsylvania
An average of 10-plus polls in Pennsylvania, the most recent on Oct. 13, shows Trump with a .1% lead.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the only swing state where Harris was ahead, according to the latest polls. An average of seven-plus polls, the most recent on Oct. 11, show Harris with a .3% lead.
270 to Win Election Map
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Source: 270toWin.
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