2024 Election polls: Harris holds national edge, swing states remain mostly up in the air
PHILADELPHIA - Election Day is nearing its month-long sprint to the finish line, and presidential hopefuls Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race.
Several of the latest national polls favor Harris by several percentage points, including the New York Post where she leads Trump by four points.
The latest national poll from the Morning Consult has Harris enjoying a slightly larger lead of 5 points, and the Real Clear Politics average skews towards Harris.
Both polls came out at the end of September, meaning the numbers haven't factored in the possible impact of several notable events that have unfolded since.
On top of a catastrophic hurricane and Iran's recent attack on Israel, Tim Walz and JD Vance sparred for the first and only time on the debate stage.
The New York Times National Polling Average, which updates daily, likewise has Harris with a 3 point advantage nationally.
Pennsylvania polls
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With Harris gaining the edge nationally, the Trump campaign will need to spend the remaining weeks campaigning in battleground states to make up ground.
Pennsylvania, a state that nearly decided the last presidential election, carries 19 electoral college votes and could again take center stage four years later.
The Real Clear Politics average has Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania, each sharing 48.2% of the poll.
The New York Times, meanwhile, gives Harris a slight one point advantage in the Keystone State, and the latest poll from Emerson College shows a dead tie.
North Carolina polls
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North Carolina, a swing state reeling from the devesting aftermath of Hurricane Helene, is leaning in favor of giving its 16 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump.
Several of the latest polls, including the Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and New York Times, are giving Trump a razor-thin edge in North Carolina.
Real Clear Politics polling aggregate likewise gives Trump the slight edge of less than a point in North Carolina.
Trump, who recently distanced himself from North Carolina's Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson who is embroiled in a scandal, recently visited the storm-ravaged state.
President Joe Biden will tour hurricane damage on Wednesday, while Harris will travel to Georgia – another swing state where the pair are locked in a tight race.
Georgia polls
WINDHAM, NH - AUGUST 8:Former president Donald Trump hosted a campaign event at Windham High School in Windham, New Hampshire on Tuesday, August 8, 2023.John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty ImagesLAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 9: Vice President Kamala
Georgia is one of two swing states where Donald Trump has gained the most breathing room, although the race is still near-deadlocked in both states.
Georgia, a state that was also decimated by Helene, shows Trump leading by more than one point; including a 3 point edge in Emerson's September poll.
Trump faces an ongoing trial in Georgia after he and a dozen more were charged with participating in a scheme to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.
The republican nominee still has strong polling numbers a month out of the election, including a 2 point advantage in the New York Times National Polling Average.
An InsiderAdvantage poll from the last week of September gives Trump a 3 point advantage in the swing state.
Nevada polls
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With just six electoral college votes, Nevada is still considered a swing state that both candidates would love to capture on the road to 270.
Harris has a slight edge in many national polls in Nevada, where she recently campaigned in Las Vegas where she held a rally with more than 7,000 supporters.
Nevada has been a bastion for democratic support in the last four presidential elections, with Trump losing to both Biden (2020) and Clinton (2016).
Michigan polls
Kamala Harris holds one of her biggest advantages in Michigan, but the 2 point margin is hardly a comfortable lead as Election Day nears.
Harris, according to the Real Clear Politics average, has widened her advantage in Michigan to more than a point.
The New York Times National Polling Average agrees that Trump will need to overcome Harris to win the state's 15 electoral college votes.
Harris in September participated in a streaming event hosted in Michigan by television talk show host Oprah Winfrey and joined by other celebrities.
Wisconsin polls
Like Michigan, many of the latest polls show Harris with over a one point lead in Wisconsin.
The New York Times National Polling Average shows Harris with a two point edge, but the Real Clear Politics aggregate poll has Harris leading by half a point.
Trump and his running mate JD Vance each visited Wisconsin last month, and as election season heads down the home stretch, Harris has a visit planned this week.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral college votes, was unexpectedly won by Trump in the 2016 election and flipped back to the democrats in 2020.
Arizona polls
While Trump's lead remains tight in Arizona, it's perhaps his best bet as far as swing states go.
Almost all the national polls are in agreement that Trump holds a one or more point lead in Arizona, a state with 11 electoral college votes.
The New York Times National Polling Average has Trump currently collecting 50% of Arizona's vote, a swing state he won in 2016 and fumbled to Biden in 2020.