Groundhog Day 2025: How often is Punxsutawney Phil correct?

As for Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, it turns out it's an all-night celebration, not all day.

Thousands will descend on the sleepy northwestern Pennsylvania town February 2nd to find out whether winter will linger until the first day of spring or come to end sometime before March 20.

By the numbers:

So, how well does Phil do? In short, not great. In the last decade, he was right 30 percent of the time. And, if you go back 20 years, he was right 40 percent of the time.

To judge Phil's accuracy, the FOX 29 Weather Authority compared Phil's national predictions to the temperatures that followed that February and March.

Looking at Philadelphia, Phil has the same record. Philadelphia's temperature forecast was correct only 40 percent of the time over 20 years.

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In the last 10 years, he also got it right 40 percent of the time. That's a slight improvement over his national forecast.

Big picture view:

For Phil to be more accurate, he needs to see his shadow more.

Seeing his shadow signals six weeks until spring. Of the last 20 years, 17 were warmer than average.

This year, the National Weather Service expects February and March to be warmer than average.

Related

How to watch Groundhog Day coverage

Punxsutawney Phil is just days away from predicting what's in store for the rest of winter, and FOX 29 has you covered with all the live coverage!

Phil's numbers:

This is the breakdown of Phil’s wins and losses:

Wrong                                       Right

2005                                                     2007

2006                                                     2010

2008                                                     2011

2009                                                     2013

2012                                                     2014

2015                                                     2016

2017                                                     2020

2018                                                     2024

2019

2021

2022

2023

What's next:

So, will Phil see his shadow again like last year? Tune in for FOX 29’s live coverage to find out what Phil has to say about the end of winter.

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