Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman stands by call that Harris will win 2024 election
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman stands by call that Harris will win 2024 election
Expert historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman has called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s and made his final prediction saying Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election back in September. Today On The Hill, he says he stands by the decision. Here's why.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting presidential elections, is standing by his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.
Litchman has received plenty of backlash since making his prediction back in September but he told FOX 5’s Tom Fitzgerald he got even more pushback for his 2016 prediction that Donald Trump would win.
However, Lichtman says the vitriol his detractors are bringing into this election cycle is different from those before it.
"I am used to pushback, I’ve been getting it for 42 years," Lichtman said. "But, I have to tell you, I have never experienced the kind of hate that has been heaped upon me this time."
Lichtman says he places the blame for this squarely on Trump and extremist rhetoric.
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"I’ve had the most vulgar, scurrilous, violent threatening kind of communication heaped on me. The safety of my family has been compromised. We’ve had to put the police on notice, secure our property, and I absolutely attribute this to the toxic politics of Donald Trump," Lichtman said. "Before Donald Trump, never saw anything remotely like this."
Despite the threats, Lichtman said Sunday that he will not change his prediction, even as polls show the two candidates locked in a dead heat nationally and in several swing states.
"I don’t change my prediction on the fly in response to the polls or the conventional wisdom. If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. Might as well just go with the polls," he said.
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in a new poll from TIPP Insights released Monday. But in two polls released by CBS/YouGov and ABC News, Harris has a slight lead over Trump. However, Trump has an advantage over Harris in several recent swing state polls.
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"I stood by my prediction in 2016 when the pollsters were virtually unanimously against it," said Lichtman.
The presidential predictor explained why he’s relying on his ‘13 Keys to the White House,’ instead of conventional polling.
"My system is based on history and yes, history could conceivably change but you wouldn’t know it until afterward," Lichtman said.
Four of the keys are based on a candidate’s politics, seven are based on performance and two are based on personality.
"The way it works is six of my 13 keys have to go against the White House party and I only have four going against them — mandate based on U.S. House elections, incumbency, foreign policy failure because of the disaster in the Middle East and incumbent charisma," he continued.
Just over one week out from the election, Lichtman says barring a "catastrophic" incident, he’s sticking with his call and continues to believe Harris will take the White House.