Northern Lights are seen reflected in the sky over the town of Lofoten, Norway. November 08, 2023. The aurora borealis is a natural astronomical phenomenon consisting of a display of lights across the Earths night sky, mainly visible in the higher la …
PHILADELPHIA - Eyes to the sky! Pennsylvania residents may catch a glimpse of the glowing Northern Lights - a rare and beautiful sight - as night falls on Thursday.
Multiple eruptions from the Sun have prompted a strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Friday, which could cause vibrant aurora lights across the Northern U.S.
The Sun is approaching Solar Maximum in its 11-year cycle, resulting in more frequent space weather events, with this week's back-to-back solar phenomena as a perfect example.
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center said at least three coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, happened on Sunday, sending clouds of plasma from the Sun toward Earth.
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On Wednesday, SWPC said a fourth CME, known as a full halo CME, prompted forecasters to upgrade the G2 watch to a G3-level geomagnetic storm watch for Friday. Full halo CMEs send out solar material away from the Sun in all directions, appearing halo-like, and usually result in geomagnetic storms at Earth.
"This faster-moving halo CME is progged to merge with 2 of the 3 upstream CMEs, all arriving at Earth on Dec. 1," according to SWPC.
CMEs can take between 1 and 3 days to reach Earth's atmosphere. When multiple eruptions from the Sun happen, one event can overtake the other, producing back-to-back solar storms.
NOAA has a 5-point rating scale for solar storms ranging from G1 to G5. Models suggest G1 (minor) levels are possible on Thursday and G3 (strong) levels are likely on Friday as the additional CMEs arrive.
NOAA's space weather forecasters are continuously watching the Sun using solar observation instruments on satellite to detect and forecast space weather as it happens. After a solar eruption, computer models then help determine when the particles are expected to arrive within Earth's atmosphere.
On Tuesday, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center said a powerful M-class solar flare created a high-frequency radio blackout event. The M9.8 solar flare created a moderate HF Radio Blackout Event, and the associated flare was recorded by NOAA's GOES-19 satellite. HF radio degradation was possible over the eastern portion of the South Pacific Ocean when the flare was in progress, according to NOAA.
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The SWPC said because of the recent activity, it's possible for more M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares, the strongest on NOAA's scale.
Solar flares are classified by their strength, with five categories designated by the letters. M and X-class flares are the strongest. An X-class flare is the largest explosion and can produce as much energy as 1 billion atomic bombs, according to NASA.
Northern Lights forecast across northern US
For most, a geomagnetic storm won't have any impact. A strong (G3) storm can cause intermittent disruption to satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation. NOAA issues space weather forecasts to help spacecraft operators and power providers prepare their systems for potential impacts.
For the public, a solar storm can actually be exciting because the charged particles crashing into Earth's atmosphere create aurora borealis, also known as the Northern Lights. These dancing lights are most common around the poles, but with a strong solar storm can appear at lower latitudes.
NOAA's Aurora Dashboard shows the likelihood of faint aurora lights in the Northern U.S. beginning Wednesday night with a higher likelihood of auroras in the Mid West on Thursday night into Friday.
The visibility line appears to run through northern parts of Pennsylvania Thursday night.
For cities with possible Northern Lights, cloud cover will be the biggest determining factor of the view. The lights could be visible from Thursday night into Friday morning from Seattle to Rochester.
Chicago and Boise have more than 90% cloud cover overnight. Bismarck and Marquette might have a better chance to see the dancing lights with partial cloud cover.
Recent solar storms in November created vivid displays of the Northern Lights as far south as the Carolinas.
More geomagnetic storms and associated aurora activity are happening because the Sun's activity is increasing as it approaches the Solar Maximum during an 11-year solar cycle. The latest SWPC forecast for Solar Cycle 25 moves up the solar maximum to January- October 2024.