Winter Weather 2023: How much snow, extreme weather should the Philadelphia area expect?

PHILADELPHIA - This winter, we'll actually get some snow in the Delaware Valley! Climate trends indicate above average snowfall head our way.

On average, we get 23 inches of snow.

To figure out what's average, you just look at snowfalls from the last few decades, which accounts for the warmer weather and warmer winters we now get.

To determine our snowfall for this winter, you look at global weather patterns.

This winter, we're focused on the ocean temperature.

So far this year, the ocean temperature has been the dominant global weather factor controlling our weather each season.

The water off the coast of South America is super warm, and it's not alone. The water in the Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico was also warmer than usual.

When the ocean is warmer than usual, it shifts the jet stream.

The jet stream is the track for our weather makers like snowstorms and big areas of rain. It's also the gate between cold air to our north and warm air to the south.

So, when the jet stream shifts from its typical location, this also means a change in our temperatures and a change in how much rain and snow we're getting… or not getting.

Over the years, there has been a lot of research into how the ocean water off the coast of South America affects our weather. If you've ever heard about El Nino or La Nina, that's what people are referencing. FOX5 in New York wrote all about that science recently.

Focusing in on that research, we went back and looked at all the years that the Pacific Ocean was as warm as this year.

When you crunch the numbers, the similar years were 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2018. As for the snow those winters, Philadelphia saw:

2002-06 - 46"
2004-05 - 30"
2009-10 - 78"
2014-15 - 27"
2015-16 - 28"
2018-19 - 17"

Of all those years, 2002 most closely resembles this year's global weather trends.

While one of those higher snow totals is a real possibility, the snowfall totals of 2014, 2015, and 2018 are more realistic when you factor in other weather trends. They account for how much warmer we've gotten lately.

After all, two of the last four winters had nearly no snow.

Here's what Philadelphia had in:

2022-23 - 0.3"
2021-22 - 13"
2020-21 - 24"
2019-20 - 0.3"

When you add the current weather trends, global weather trends, and what's average, that sets us up for getting snowfall totals that come in a bit above average for the Philadelphia area this winter.

So, get the snow thrower and the snow shovels ready!

In the coming weeks, Kathy Orr, Scott Williams, and Sue Serio, and Drew Anderson will all sit down together to discuss the winter forecast. They'll examine all the other nuances besides global weather trends and make sure no other snowfall factors were missed before they put together your official FOX29 Weather Authority winter forecast. Look for that.

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