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Winter 2023 Outlook: How much snow to expect in Philadelphia this winter season

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Updated  November 25, 2023 2:14pm EST
Weather
FOX 29 Philadelphia

Winter Weather Outlook: How much snow to expect in Philly

The big weather question every winter is how much snow can we expect. The FOX 29 Weather Authority breaks down the numbers for the 2023-2024 winter season.

PHILADELPHIA - The big weather question every winter is how much snow can we expect?

The FOX 29 Weather Authority has combed through the data in a winter weather outlook for the region and breaks down that data into six numbers.

  • 26 = there will be 26 inches of snow in Philadelphia for the 2023-2024 winter season. To determine the snowfall for this season, the FOX 29 Weather Authority team researched global weather patterns. This year's unusually warm ocean water in the Pacific Ocean and early season snow in northern Asia signal how winter weather patterns will set up over the Delaware Valley. Past weather also plays a role. We have warmer winters now, so that also factors into the snowfall forecast.
  • 25 = there is a 25 percent chance of a white Christmas. Don't get your hopes up for snow on Christmas. Global weather patterns suggest that mid-December will be the coldest part of the month. So, will a mid-December snow last through Christmas? Time will tell.
  • 13 = there will be 13 days of snow on the ground for the Philadelphia area. This number is on the lower end because of our trend of warmer winters. When we get smaller snowfalls, they don't last on the ground as long.
  • 8 = four inconvenient snows under three inches and four heavy, plowable snows of three inches or more. Of those plowable snows, two will be over six inches. These bigger snows will be from coastal storms. The warmer Pacific Ocean, called an El Niño, leads to a storm track that favors coastal storms over the northeast.
  • 7 = grocery store runs. A wetter El Niño pattern also means more snow opportunities, which leads to seven runs to the grocery store because of snowfall.
  • 1 = January will be the coldest month. On average, January is our coldest winter month, and global temperature trends suggest that's the case again this year.

Check out this article about winter weather forecasting techniques. Your Weather Authority walks through exactly how they researched El Niño years.

In short, they looked for years when the Pacific Ocean water was this warm. Then, they grabbed the snowfall totals for those years, and focused on the most recent ones. Those snowfall totals played a big role in determining that we'll get 26 inches of snow this year.