2024 Election: Is Pennsylvania still a swing state?
PENNSYLVANIA - Pennsylvania has always been central to presidential campaigns, but not always considered a battleground state. That all changed nearly a decade ago.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump won the state by less than one percent. Four years later, President Joe Biden won by just over one percent.
Those razor-thin margins are why broadcast networks around the world consider Pennsylvania a swing state.
However, one Berks County college professor says to forget all of that.
"Pennsylvania is not a battleground state, and you don’t have to win the commonwealth to win the White House," said Dr. Tim Blessing, a political history professor at Alvernia University. "Truthfully, whatever they’re smoking, I’d like to have some of it. It just isn’t so."
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Dr. Blessing has been obsessed with politics since he was a kid. Now at 74 years old, he could be called a data scientist, using his own numbers.
"I derive them through the use of polls. But I also have all the voting data for every county in the United States dating back to 1892," Dr. Blessing clarifies.
His latest number-crunching has led him to the conclusion that Pennsylvania is no longer a swing state.
The headline on one of his recent Substack blog posts reads, "Trump has virtually no chance in the commonwealth."
"If I were Trump, I wouldn’t try for Pennsylvania, but there’s just no point to it. He's going to spend a lot of money here and his chances of winning are very slight, not impossible, but very slight," the professor explains.
His argument is threefold:
- First: "The Democratic campaign is very sophisticated here. And what you have are the latest political science techniques being used to identify voters, register voters, keep track of voters, and make sure they vote. And the Republicans are not even close to doing what the Democrats are doing."
- Second: The most populated and largest city in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, overwhelmingly votes blue and is politically predictable. "The Democrats can and have generally done well in Philadelphia by more than they lose the rest of the state. So Philadelphia County in and of itself makes it virtually impossible for a Republican. They simply can’t overcome the population advantage that Philadelphia and the collar counties have."
- Third, and this might be the biggest difference maker, Dr. Blessing says Vice President Kamala Harris has reignited voter enthusiasm, especially among women. "The enthusiasm is high on both sides. But if both sides have the same enthusiasm, the Democrat wins. That’s how it is."
When asked why he believes Harris is different, Dr. Blessing points to "excitement."
"First off, she doesn’t seem to be part of the establishment. She does seem to be an outside figure," he said. "Harris is going to represent a 'no' vote against things that have been perceived as going on for some time. So, she, both Trump and she are your anti-establishment candidates. That's not common in American history."
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FOX 29's Shiba Russel then asked if he thought Pennsylvania was a battleground state when Biden was in the race.
"I think it was more of a battleground state than it is now. The Democrats were less organized here," Dr. Blessing replied.
"But so your view on this really changed once Harris got into the race?" Shiba asked.
"Absolutely. There’s no question that Harris has sparked enthusiasm which Biden didn’t come close to sparking. And so I think that what you’re going to see is the Democratic organization, which, as I say, is quite good, is really pumped up, really energized, and that’s going to turn out voters by the bushel. So again, I don’t see how Trump does that."
So, which counties will Dr. Blessing be watching on Election Night?
"Well, first off, we want to take a look at the margin which is being run up in Philadelphia County. You want to look at Bucks County. If Trump can run up a big margin in Westmoreland County, Butler County, Green County, those counties, and if he can run up a big enough margin in the collar counties of Pittsburgh, he has a shot at it. But Erie County, of all the counties in Pennsylvania, Erie County is the one that is most representative of what’s going on in the entire state."
He explains Erie County as a mix of urban, rural, and labor - a great patchwork of Pennsylvania.
The city of Erie is the state’s fifth most populous city according to the last census, so not even close to the population numbers of Philadelphia.
"I think there’s going to be a big turnout every place," Dr. Blessing concluded.