White Christmas in Philadelphia? The odds do not favor snow for Christmas in the Delaware Valley
PHILADELPHIA - White Christmases in the Delaware Valley are nearly as rare as spotting the Abominable Snow Monster and you are more likely to see snow on Christmas Day in your favorite movie or television show than out of your window.
The last time we had more than just flurries on Christmas Day was 2002, when we saw one inch of snow and the last time we had any significant white stuff on the ground for Christmas was 2009, when the region received eight inches.
Looking back at weather records for the last 30 years, there have been three Christmases where there was an inch of snow on the ground. That includes the 2009 event as well as two other years in the late 1990s, when there was one inch of snow.
The FOX 29 Weather Authority Winter Weather Outlook gave a 25 percent chance of a white Christmas, but only if a mid-December cold snap produced the white stuff. We did not have that this year.
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The big weather question every winter is how much snow can we expect. The FOX 29 Weather Authority breaks down the numbers for the 2023-2024 winter season.
So, if you consider recent trends, we only have a 10 percent chance of a white Christmas.
Snow falling on Christmas is even rarer in the last 30 years. Aside from that inch in 2002, there has only been one other year with snow on Christmas in the early 90s, and that was only a dusting.
Looking even further back in records to 1940, there were only nine Christmas Days with an inch or more of snow on the ground. If you do the math, that's an 11 percent chance of a white Christmas. Snow falling on Christmas is still just as rare in all those records. Snow fell on six Christmases since 1940, and three of those were just dustings.
That's a seven percent chance of snow on Christmas. Turns out, that's the same chance when you just look at the last 30 years.
So, it's pretty rare for the Philadelphia area to have snow on the ground on Christmas and even rarer for snow to fall on Christmas Day that is more significant than a dusting. Pour yourself a cup of hot chocolate, turn on that television and watch the Bing Crosby classic, "White Christmas," or how about a "Christmas Story?" Then you can enjoy the snow without shoveling.